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 European Union (EU) Commission's autumn economic forecast report foresees that Turkey will be the fastest growing country in 2010 with a 2.8% growth rate.
In EU Commission's previous report issued six months ago, 2010 growth forecast for Turkey was 2.2%. Expecting an economic constriction of 5.8 % for Turkey this year, EU Commission declared that they foresee an economic growth of 3.6% in 2011.
The report indicates that "after an outstanding growth performance" in 2002-2006, the Turkish economy started to decelerate in 2007 due to domestic factors such as increased political uncertainty, slowdown of reforms and tight monetary policy. In the report, it is expressed that in 2008 the economic crisis hit Turkey mainly via trade and financial channels. It is emphasized that Turkey's exportation was hard-hit by the shrinkage in European Market. However, previous structural reforms, in the banking sector in particular, had put Turkey in a sturdy footing and avoided a full-fledged financial crisis. Although the anti-crisis prevention measures introduced by the government helped limit the decline in domestic consumption, it is expected that the overall decline in gross domestic product still reach 5.8% in 2009 due to the disappointing collapse of GDP by 14.3% in the first quarter of 2009. As the external demand is projected to pick up only slowly and the fiscal expansion is reined in, with the help of domestic demand and excess stock, the GDP growth is expected to return to positive territory: 2.8% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011. According to EU Commission report, the end-of-period inflation will be 5.6%, receding substantially below the Central Bank's target. It is indicated that the 2010 and 2011 targets of 5.8% and 5.3% are expected to be met. EU Commission foresees that unemployment rate, which was expected to reach 13.5% in 2009, will continue to rise towards 13.9% and recede to 13.5% in 2011. Positive effects of the global economic crisis can be seen in current account deficit, which has been one of Turkey's most important problems in previous years. EU projects that current account deficit will shrink from 5.7% of GDP in 2008 to about 2% of GDP in 2009. EU and Candidate Countries EU Commission Autumn Forecast Report projects that Euro area zone and EU will achieve a 0.7% growth. As none of the European Union countries can reach Turkey's forecasted growth performance of 2.8%, several EU countries economies are expected to continue shrinking in 2010. 2010 growth forecasts for some EU countries are indicated in the report as follows ing: Slovakia 1.9%, Poland 1.8%, Denmark 1.5, Sweden 1.4%, Slovenia 1.3%, Germany and France 1.2%, Luxembourg and Austria 1.1%, Finland and England 0.9%, Czech Republic 0.8%, Italy and Malta 0.7%, Belgium 0.6%, Romania 0.5%, Holland and Portugal 0.3% and Greek Populated Southern Cyprus 0.1%. The projected economic shrinkage rates of some countries are: Latvia 4%, Lithuania 3.9%, Ireland 1.4%, Bulgaria 1.1%, Spain 0.8%, Hungary 0.5%, Greece 0.3 % and Estonia 0.1%. EU Commission's growth rate expectations for candidate countries excluding Turkey are as follows: Croatia 0.2% and Macedonia 1.5%. Potential candidates (Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Albania and Kosovo) are projected to reach a 1.4% growth rate. In 2010, it is forecasted that non-EU country Sweden will continue to shrink by 0.1% while Norway will grow by 0.6% and Iceland by 1.9%. According to EU Commission, USA will grow by 2.2%, Japan 1.1%, China 9.6%, India 6.4%, Russia 2.3%, South America 3.1% Sub-Saharan Africa 4% and overall world economy will grow by 3.1%. Source: Dünya Gazetesi |
